Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Singapore
decks
26
(9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
220
103-94-23
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1360
· median 1363
· range 1094–1642
(26 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 56 | 26-24-6 | 51.8% | 51.7% | 51.1% | +0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 20 | 13-5-2 | 70.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 20 | 11-7-2 | 60.0% | 58.3% | 65.2% | +5.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 16 | 9-3-4 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 68.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 47.1% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 15 | 9-6-0 | 60.0% | 57.9% | 56.2% | +2.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 16 | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 30.0% | 35.9% | -5.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 32.9% | -9.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 10 | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 32.1% | 23.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.1% | -4.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 33.9% | -8.1 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.3% | +20.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
Decklists · 26 from this event
The 26 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Spirit of Fire, Crux Sight. Losers more often ran: Under Fire, Fast Cure, Resolute Stand.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Retold Fortune
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Potion Infusion: Seal
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Spark Alight
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Retold Fortune | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Empowering Prayer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |