Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Ascent Singapore
decks
23
(8.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
192
84-83-25
overall winrate
50.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1342
· median 1318
· range 1068–1688
(23 pilots with an ELO rating)
1003
Q1 1211
Q3 1400
1730
35% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
26% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 28.8% | 68 | 37-24-7 | 59.6% | 59.0% | 59.6% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 20 | 7-11-2 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 34.8% | -5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 16 | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 27.5% | 27.7% | -8.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.8% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 41.8% | -3.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.0% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 64.0% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 40.2% | -4.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 13 | 4-4-5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 37.3% | -8.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.2% | -10.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -1.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.8 |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 23 from this event
The 23 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Scout the Land, Beseech the Winds, Nullifying Lantern. Losers more often ran: Zephyr, Sharpen Blade, Reclaim.
Scout the Land
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Beseech the Winds
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Tristan, Shadowreaver
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Sharpen Blade
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Gearstride Gloves
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Accepted Contract
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zephyr | -0.71 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reclaim | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Diablerie | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Wind | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Disorienting Winds | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Accepted Contract | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Betraying Blade | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Baby Gray Slime | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Extortion Scheme | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Temporal Spectrometer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Sharpening Stone | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malignant Athame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |