Fire AggroTier 1
at Ascent Seattle
decks
19
(6.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
161
85-72-4
overall winrate
54.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.9%
avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1329
· range 1031–1587
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
21% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
16% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 50 | 24-25-1 | 49.0% | 49.1% | 60.3% | +3.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 59.5% | +4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 10 | 10-0-0 | 100.0% | 85.7% | 93.3% | +19.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +3.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.8% | +5.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 68.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 42.2% | -3.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 72.2% | +14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +4.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 46.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.1 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.6% | +21.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.7% | +17.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +7.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.1% | +18.3 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Blinding Orb, Clumsy Apprentice, Water Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Heated Vengeance, Backup Charger, Smoke Out.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Clumsy Apprentice
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Arthur, Young Heir
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Demolition
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Planted Explosive
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 123 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 103 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silent Firebrand | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Rescue the Heir | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Crimson Tear | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calamity Cannon | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Framework Sidearm | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Force Load | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focusing Round | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bombard Flarecannon | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Extraction Incision | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianye, Dawn's Keep | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |