Fire Tera Diao ChanTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
decks
7
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
77
42-26-9
overall winrate
60.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1468
· range 1348–1632
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
57% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 25 | 15-7-3 | 66.0% | 63.8% | 59.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 51.8% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 30.2% | -12.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 45.0% | -3.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 4 | 1-0-3 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 56.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 20.5% | -28.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 31.7% | -13.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.3% | +6.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -6.5 |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.1% | -27.0 |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Tera Diao Chan decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
