← Ascent Seattle

Water FractalTier 1

at Ascent Seattle

decks
60 (20.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
429 248-159-22
overall winrate
60.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9% avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
60.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1394 · median 1411 · range 1127–1679 (60 pilots with an ELO rating)
959 Q1 1212 Q3 1427 1750
42% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 8% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 6.6% 50 25-24-1 51.0% 50.9% 39.7% -3.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 6.6% 39 21-18-0 53.8% 53.5% 43.0% -2.5
Fire Suzaku 6.6% 35 19-16-0 54.3% 53.8% 46.1% -1.4
Fire Crux Mage 4.5% 14 14-0-0 100.0% 88.9% 85.9% +14.8
Wind Shadowstrike 4.5% 26 14-10-2 57.7% 56.7% 58.2% +3.0
Water Genbu 4.2% 9 7-0-2 88.9% 76.9% 77.0% +12.5
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 23 14-7-2 65.2% 63.0% 58.8% +3.3
Fire Exia 3.5% 13 11-2-0 84.6% 76.5% 65.5% +6.5
Wind Allies 2.8% 22 13-9-0 59.1% 57.7% 50.0% -0.0
Wind Seiryuu 2.8% 13 6-6-1 50.0% 50.0% 38.4% -4.8
Fire Tera Diao Chan 2.4% 25 7-15-3 34.0% 36.2% 40.2% -3.7
Water Allies 2.1% 13 11-2-0 84.6% 76.5% 67.6% +7.4
Water Tera Cleric 2.1% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 57.1% +4.6
Wind Byakko 2.1% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 44.4% -2.7
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.7% 14 8-6-0 57.1% 55.6% 50.2% +0.1
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.7% 9 7-1-1 83.3% 73.1% 67.7% +8.2
Wind Razorgale 1.7% 11 7-2-2 72.7% 66.7% 62.5% +5.5
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.4% 8 5-1-2 75.0% 66.7% 58.8% +4.2
Water Penguin Mill 1.4% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.6% +1.9
Water Ravishing Mill 1.4% 6 6-0-0 100.0% 80.0% 76.2% +14.0
Water Seiryuu 1.4% 9 5-4-0 55.6% 53.8% 59.5% +4.4
Wind Luxem Zander 1.4% 18 5-11-2 33.3% 36.4% 32.2% -7.0
Fire Arcane 1.0% 6 5-1-0 83.3% 70.0% 63.2% +7.1
Slimes 1.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.1% +15.4
Water Crux Mage 1.0% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 47.0% -1.6
Fire Seiryuu 0.7% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 72.6% +13.0
Water Luxem Assassin 0.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 73.9% +23.0
Wind Diana 0.7% 0 — — — — —
Wind Luxem Tamer 0.7% 0 — — — — —
Wind Slimes 0.7% 0 — — — — —
Fire Allen 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.1% +17.8
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 39.4% -10.2
Fire Triskit 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.8% +1.2
Water Astra Cleric 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.3% 6 1-4-1 25.0% 35.0% 20.9% -15.5
Water Diana 0.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 53.5% +2.6
Water Diao Chan 0.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.1% -3.8
Water Neos 0.3% 0 — — — — —
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.8% +12.5
Water Tera Kongming 0.3% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.4% +1.1
Water Umbra Diana 0.3% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 74.6% +15.7
Water Umbra Ranger 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.4
Wind Arcane 0.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.2% -3.6
Wind Arcane Rai 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.5% +10.4
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.0% +11.1
Wind Crux Mage 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.7% +15.5
Wind Kongming 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.2% -15.7
Wind Lorraine 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Wind Neos 0.3% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 61.7% +7.5
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 29.9% -32.2
Decklists · 60 from this event

The 60 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 87 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 18 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Unstable Fractal, Fractal of Refreshment, Fractal of Intrusion. Losers more often ran: Coriolis Ward, Hydroguard Retainer, Fan of Seven Debts.

↑ Played more by winners
Unstable Fractal
Unstable Fractal
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.
Of 87 mirrors: the winner ran more in 39, the loser ran more in 17, both ran the same in 31.
Fractal of Refreshment
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 2.9 copies on average, losing decks 2.4.
Of 87 mirrors: the winner ran more in 41, the loser ran more in 25, both ran the same in 21.
Fractal of Intrusion
Fractal of Intrusion
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.6.
Of 87 mirrors: the winner ran more in 34, the loser ran more in 18, both ran the same in 35.
Fractal of Snow
Fractal of Snow
Winning decks ran 3.6 copies on average, losing decks 3.1.
Of 87 mirrors: the winner ran more in 24, the loser ran more in 11, both ran the same in 52.
Crystalline Mirror
Crystalline Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 87 mirrors: the winner ran more in 18, the loser ran more in 6, both ran the same in 63.
Burst Asunder
Burst Asunder
Winning decks ran 3.9 copies on average, losing decks 3.8.
Of 87 mirrors: the winner ran more in 14, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 69.
↓ Played more by losers
Coriolis Ward
Coriolis Ward
Losing decks ran 0.9 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 87 mirrors: the loser ran more in 21, the winner ran more in 8, both ran the same in 58.
Hydroguard Retainer
Hydroguard Retainer
Losing decks ran 1.1 copies on average, winning decks 0.6.
Of 87 mirrors: the loser ran more in 19, the winner ran more in 7, both ran the same in 61.
Fan of Seven Debts
Fan of Seven Debts
Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.
Of 87 mirrors: the loser ran more in 19, the winner ran more in 7, both ran the same in 61.
Kongming, Wayward Maven
Kongming, Wayward Maven
Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.
Of 87 mirrors: the loser ran more in 19, the winner ran more in 7, both ran the same in 61.
Ardent Cloudstriker
Ardent Cloudstriker
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 87 mirrors: the loser ran more in 19, the winner ran more in 7, both ran the same in 61.
Frostbind
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 87 mirrors: the loser ran more in 30, the winner ran more in 20, both ran the same in 37.
Show all 105 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 85 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Unstable Fractal +0.25 39 17 13
Fractal of Refreshment +0.18 41 25 19
Fractal of Intrusion +0.18 34 18 3
Fractal of Snow +0.15 24 11 50
Coriolis Ward -0.15 8 21 2
Crystalline Mirror +0.14 18 6 54
Hydroguard Retainer -0.14 7 19 5
Fan of Seven Debts -0.14 7 19 5
Kongming, Wayward Maven -0.14 7 19 5
Ardent Cloudstriker -0.14 7 19 5
Frostbind -0.11 20 30 20
Burst Asunder +0.11 14 4 69
Water Resonance Bauble -0.10 17 26 34
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.10 14 23 9
Tariff Ring -0.10 17 26 36
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel -0.10 22 31 9
Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish -0.10 5 14 2
Spirit of Water +0.09 12 4 71
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.09 19 27 19
Arrow Trap +0.09 14 6 1
Chilling Touch +0.09 16 8 0
Fragmented Spirit of Water -0.09 4 12 0
Snow Fairy -0.08 13 20 4
Lost in Thought +0.08 22 15 15
Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer +0.08 14 7 1
Vanitas, Convergent Ruin +0.08 14 7 1
Scepter of Lumina +0.08 14 7 1
Awakened Deacon +0.08 29 22 5
Vanitas, Dominus Rex +0.08 14 7 1
Water Barrier -0.08 5 12 0
Scatter Essence +0.08 14 7 1
Censer of Restful Peace +0.08 18 11 53
Fast Cure +0.08 15 8 1
Fractal of Mana -0.07 2 8 1
Extricating Touch +0.07 39 33 11
Portentous Tanggu -0.07 12 18 4
Captivating Opulence -0.07 18 24 6
Lost Wisdom -0.07 4 10 1
Innervate Agility +0.07 10 4 0
Fractal of Rain +0.06 9 4 74
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.06 11 6 69
Diao Chan, Enchantress +0.06 20 15 40
Nascent Blast -0.06 3 8 0
Mana Resonance +0.06 26 21 1
Frozen Dismissal +0.06 19 14 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.06 3 8 0
Rimesoul Bishop -0.06 1 6 0
Conjure Downpour -0.06 4 9 0
Torpid Fractal +0.06 15 10 1
Bubble Mage -0.06 0 5 0
Scepter of Fascination +0.05 20 16 39
Shimmering Refraction -0.05 9 13 65
Beseech the Winds +0.05 9 5 0
Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron +0.05 12 8 1
Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy +0.05 12 8 1
Ingredient Pouch +0.05 12 8 1
Quicksilver Grail +0.05 15 11 9
Dissonant Fractal +0.03 3 0 84
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition +0.03 27 24 12
Glimmering Refusal +0.03 3 0 84
Frostnip Pirouette +0.03 16 13 1
Disenchant +0.03 30 27 9
Blinding Orb -0.03 9 12 2
Resolute Stand -0.03 3 6 0
Wand of Frost -0.03 3 6 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.02 8 6 72
Acquiescing Rejection -0.02 2 4 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.02 9 11 65
Frostsworn Paladin -0.02 24 26 27
Zephyr +0.02 4 2 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.02 17 19 38
Fractal of Insight +0.02 16 14 52
Expel the Departed +0.02 31 29 3
Orb of Regret -0.02 4 6 0
Fractal of Polar Depths -0.02 2 4 0
Tideholder Claymore -0.02 2 4 0
Blitz Charger +0.02 9 7 1
Revitalizing Cleanse -0.02 2 4 0
Deep Sea Fractal -0.02 1 3 0
Submerged Fatestone -0.02 0 2 0
Tabula of Salvage -0.02 0 2 0
Revealing Mesmer -0.02 0 2 0
Cerulean Decree -0.01 18 19 4
Art of War +0.01 15 14 5
Song of Frost +0.01 24 23 2
Chill to the Bone +0.01 15 14 4
Maiden of Shimmering Air -0.01 2 3 0
Aqueous Stallion -0.01 2 3 0
Necklace of Foresight -0.01 0 1 0
Glacial Evocation +0.01 4 3 0
Dream Fairy -0.01 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -0.01 0 1 0
Bulwark Sword +0.01 1 0 0
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace +0.00 13 13 61
Fracturize +0.00 1 1 85
Eventide Lure +0.00 1 1 0
Hairpin of Transience +0.00 3 3 0
Three Visits +0.00 2 2 0
Tidal Lock +0.00 1 1 0
Auspicious Feast +0.00 2 2 0
Coronation Ceremony +0.00 2 2 0
Ceasing Edict +0.00 2 2 0
Incapacitate +0.00 1 1 0
Annul Spell +0.00 3 3 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21122/archetypes/Water Fractal