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Wind SeiryuuTier 2

at Ascent Seattle

decks
8 (2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
68 29-33-6
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7% avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
49.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1241 · median 1217 · range 1159–1341 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
959 Q1 1212 Q3 1427 1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 20.8% 13 6-6-1 50.0% 50.0% 61.6% +4.8
Fire Aggro 6.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.4% -1.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 6.6% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.3% +1.5
Fire Suzaku 6.6% 9 0-9-0 0.0% 15.4% 10.9% -18.1
Fire Crux Mage 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.7% +17.2
Wind Shadowstrike 4.5% 7 0-7-0 0.0% 18.2% 13.5% -18.4
Water Genbu 4.2% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 73.9% +15.3
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 4 3-0-1 87.5% 68.8% 70.8% +13.3
Fire Exia 3.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Wind Allies 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.9% +19.0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 2.4% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 68.3% +13.7
Water Allies 2.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -5.1
Water Tera Cleric 2.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.7% +18.6
Wind Byakko 2.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 73.9% +22.9
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.7% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.7% +13.9
Wind Razorgale 1.7% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 34.2% -11.8
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.4% 0
Water Penguin Mill 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.4% -16.9
Water Ravishing Mill 1.4% 0
Water Seiryuu 1.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.6% -10.2
Wind Luxem Zander 1.4% 0
Fire Arcane 1.0% 0
Slimes 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.3% -13.8
Water Crux Mage 1.0% 0
Fire Seiryuu 0.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Water Luxem Assassin 0.7% 0
Wind Diana 0.7% 0
Wind Luxem Tamer 0.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.2% -18.8
Wind Slimes 0.7% 0
Fire Allen 0.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.7% -22.8
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.3% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 56.0% +5.7
Fire Ravishing Mill 0.3% 0
Fire Triskit 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.3% +16.5
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 56.0% +5.7
Water Astra Cleric 0.3% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.3% 0
Water Diana 0.3% 0
Water Diao Chan 0.3% 0
Water Neos 0.3% 0
Water Tera Diao Chan 0.3% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.3% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.3% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 0.3% 0
Wind Arcane 0.3% 0
Wind Arcane Rai 0.3% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.3% 0
Wind Crux Mage 0.3% 0
Wind Kongming 0.3% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.3% 0
Wind Neos 0.3% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.3% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang -1.00 0 1 0
Fatestone of Revelations +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Forest Cake +1.00 1 0 0
Felicitous Flock +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Sunblessed Gazelle +1.00 1 0 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +1.00 1 0 0
Beastbond Boots +1.00 1 0 0
Winds of Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger -1.00 0 1 0
Whirlwind Threads -1.00 0 1 0
Lumen Borealis +1.00 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Advent of the Shenju -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Peacock of Prosperity +1.00 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Foraging Fox +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
Idle Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter +1.00 1 0 0
Journey's Beginning -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Fatestone of Heaven +1.00 1 0 0
Byakko's Command -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -1.00 0 1 0
Seiryuu's Command -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21122/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu