Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 61.6% | +4.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 9 | 0-9-0 | 0.0% | 15.4% | 10.9% | -18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 7 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 13.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.9% | +15.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 70.8% | +13.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 68.3% | +13.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.9% | +22.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.2% | -11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.8 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Felicitous Flock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winds of Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Whirlwind Threads | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lumen Borealis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peacock of Prosperity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Foraging Fox | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Journey's Beginning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Heaven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Byakko's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |