Fire ExiaTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
decks
10
(3.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
76
20-49-7
overall winrate
30.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.2%
avg ELO -4.0 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1184
· median 1183
· range 1004–1408
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 13 | 2-11-0 | 15.4% | 23.5% | 34.5% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 65.6% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 31.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 79.5% | +28.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.3% | -5.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.8 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.6% | +10.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | -15.6 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Blazing Lunge, Savage Swing, Crimson Prescience.
Blazing Lunge
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Savage Swing
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Crimson Prescience
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Ignite Fate
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Hemorrhaging Rend
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 69 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 63 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seize Fate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Desperate Cavalier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ash Filcher | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Combat Training | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heatwave Generator | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingress of Sanguine Ire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |