Fire ArcaneTier 3
at Ascent Seattle
decks
3
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
6-16-1
overall winrate
28.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.1%
avg ELO -7.1 per match
expected value
39.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400
· median 1471
· range 1123–1607
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 36.8% | -7.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
