Water Ravishing MillTier 3
at Ascent Seattle
decks
4
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
8-17-1
overall winrate
32.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -4.0 per match
expected value
39.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1123
· median 1145
· range 959–1244
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 23.8% | -14.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 68.1% | +28.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.3% | +21.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
