Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
decks
19
(6.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
162
70-86-6
overall winrate
45.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1298
· range 1139–1608
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
5% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
32% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 35 | 16-19-0 | 45.7% | 46.2% | 53.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 10 | 0-10-0 | 0.0% | 14.3% | 6.7% | -19.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 15 | 6-8-1 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 45.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 39.6% | -5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.8% | -1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.2% | -1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.8% | -7.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 9 | 9-0-0 | 100.0% | 84.6% | 89.1% | +18.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 48.2% | -0.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.3% | -9.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 77.2% | +20.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -9.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 78.2% | +27.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 65.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.5% | +22.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 75.1% | +18.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Smoke Bombs. Losers more often ran: Suzaku's Command.
Smoke Bombs
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Suzaku's Command
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 68 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 66 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Foraging Fox | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clockwork Musicbox | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Solar Providence | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shout at Your Pets | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |