Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
decks
1
(0.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
10-3-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
71.0%
avg ELO +8.6 per match
expected value
60.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
64.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1464
· median 1464
· range 1464–1464
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 79.1% | +15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
