Wind ByakkoTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 31.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 22.8% | -20.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.3% | -15.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 18.6% | -30.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.1% | -22.9 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Wind Byakko decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |