Water Penguin MillTier 3
at Ascent Seattle
decks
4
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
15-17-0
overall winrate
46.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.3%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1375
· median 1384
· range 1207–1525
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.4% | -1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -4.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.4% | +1.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 20.2% | -19.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.0% | -28.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
