Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
decks
13
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
94
34-55-5
overall winrate
38.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.8%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
38.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1343
· range 1127–1526
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
15% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
23% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 14 | 0-14-0 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 14.1% | -14.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.3% | +0.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 13 | 5-8-0 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 38.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 60.4% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +4.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 38.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.0% | +1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -10.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.5% | -21.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 37.9% | -6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.9% | -28.9 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.5% | +19.7 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sword of Seeking, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Kongming, Wayward Maven. Losers more often ran: Disintegrate, Spirit Blade: Ascension, Prismatic Edge.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Kongming, Wayward Maven
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Ignite the Soul
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Disintegrate
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Prismatic Edge
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Honorable Vanguard
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Sudden Steel
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 65 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alkahest | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Solar Pinnacle | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Healing Aura | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excoriate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhou Yu, Enlightened Sage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |