Fire Cinderbloom ComboTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
decks
5
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49
26-23-0
overall winrate
53.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.9%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1330
· median 1309
· range 1100–1511
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 14 | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 57.8% | +3.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.2% | +11.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.5% | +21.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.2% | +22.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Cinderbloom Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
