Fire AggroTier 1
at Ascent Boston
decks
14
(5.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
187
92-88-7
overall winrate
51.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1296
· median 1277
· range 1065–1541
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
21% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 66 | 30-35-1 | 46.2% | 46.4% | 49.2% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 58.2% | +3.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 14 | 7-6-1 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 58.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 36.3% | -6.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 39.8% | -4.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.3% | +2.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.9% | -10.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +2.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 63.9% | +7.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.5% | +2.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Smoke Out, Intensified Pyre. Losers more often ran: Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper, Incinerated Templar, Fiery Interference.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Out
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Intensified Pyre
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Incinerated Templar
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Fiery Interference
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 77 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ranger Strides | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bombard Flarecannon | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ashwound Shot | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |