Water AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Boston
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 31 | 19-11-1 | 62.9% | 61.4% | 61.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 47.0% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 39.6% | -4.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 54.8% | +2.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -2.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +3.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.9% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.1% | +18.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lingering Banshee | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |