Water Umbra GuardianTier 3
at Ascent Boston
decks
2
(0.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
11-15-0
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1161
· median 1161
· range 1011–1311
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.0% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
