Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Boston
decks
19
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
241
112-111-18
overall winrate
50.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1343
· range 1162–1516
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
26% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
5% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 94 | 41-46-7 | 47.3% | 47.4% | 51.4% | +0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 18 | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 14 | 5-6-3 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 46.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 16 | 8-7-1 | 53.1% | 52.5% | 62.3% | +4.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 14 | 4-9-1 | 32.1% | 36.1% | 44.0% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 57.5% | +3.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.7% | +2.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 28.3% | -12.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 39.6% | -5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 71.0% | +12.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +0.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 45.2% | -2.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.6% | +19.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -3.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 72.8% | +14.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Rending Flames, Consumption Ring. Losers more often ran: Cremation Ritual, Unyielding Wraithguard.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Consumption Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tether in Flames
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Disintegrate
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tome of Sorcery
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Unyielding Wraithguard
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crossroads Specter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |