Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
7
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
91
45-44-2
overall winrate
50.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1307
· range 1237–1423
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 30 | 14-15-1 | 48.3% | 48.5% | 51.3% | +0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 58.6% | +3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 29.0% | -12.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -7.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.5% | +6.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.2% | -15.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.1% | +21.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
