Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
31
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
333
147-182-4
overall winrate
44.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1311
· range 1043–1511
(31 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
32% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 120 | 47-72-1 | 39.6% | 39.9% | 38.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 31 | 12-19-0 | 38.7% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 18 | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 42.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 14 | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 41.8% | -3.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 16 | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 42.5% | 41.2% | -3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 43.2% | -3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +6.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 52.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 41.4% | -3.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -1.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 18.7% | -18.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 53.0% | +1.5 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 79.0% | +14.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.6% | -11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.5% | +17.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.0% | -4.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.3% | +16.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
Decklists · 31 from this event
The 31 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 23 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Three of Hearts, Vengeful Paramour, Rile the Abyss. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Crystallized Destiny, Rococo, Explosive Maven.
Three of Hearts
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 23 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 7.
Vengeful Paramour
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 23 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 7.
Banned
Rile the Abyss
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 23 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 10.
Undying Dreams
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 23 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 10.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 23 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 10.
Demolition
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 23 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 7.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 23 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 11.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 23 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 12.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 23 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 11.
Intensified Pyre
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 23 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 11.
Fatestone of Unrelenting
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 23 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 17.
Ignis Deus
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 23 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 17.
Show all 83 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 63 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three of Hearts | +0.43 | 13 | 3 | 5 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.43 | 13 | 3 | 5 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.30 | 10 | 3 | 8 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.30 | 10 | 3 | 8 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.30 | 10 | 3 | 8 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.26 | 3 | 9 | 3 | |
| Demolition | +0.26 | 11 | 5 | 7 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.26 | 8 | 2 | 13 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.22 | 8 | 3 | 10 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.22 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.17 | 5 | 1 | 17 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.17 | 4 | 8 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.17 | 4 | 8 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.17 | 8 | 4 | 10 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.17 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.17 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.17 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.17 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.13 | 4 | 1 | 18 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.13 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.13 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.13 | 8 | 5 | 10 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.13 | 9 | 6 | 5 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.13 | 5 | 8 | 10 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.13 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -0.13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -0.13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.09 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.09 | 5 | 7 | 11 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.09 | 6 | 4 | 12 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.09 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.09 | 3 | 1 | 19 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.09 | 3 | 1 | 19 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.09 | 3 | 1 | 18 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.09 | 6 | 4 | 13 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.09 | 9 | 7 | 5 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.09 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.09 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 22 | |
| Jianye, Dawn's Keep | -0.04 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.04 | 8 | 9 | 6 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 22 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 20 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 20 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.04 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 11 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisonous Apple | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embertail Squirrel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |