Water Umbra CielTier 3
at Ascent Boston
decks
1
(0.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
36.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
36.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1056
· median 1056
· range 1056–1056
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 68.7% | +29.9 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
