Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
9
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
104
44-55-5
overall winrate
44.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1293
· range 1192–1508
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 34 | 14-18-2 | 44.1% | 44.7% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 45.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 69.2% | +12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.9% | +5.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.5% | -6.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.1% | -9.7 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +15.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.7% | -26.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Wind Wakeup Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
