Fire SuitedTier 2
at Ascent Boston
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 36 | 19-16-1 | 54.2% | 53.8% | 50.8% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 51.0% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 12 | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 55.8% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 60.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 68.8% | +12.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -4.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.8% | -6.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.5% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.2% | -25.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |