Fire OblationTier 2
at Ascent Boston
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 63 | 26-33-4 | 44.4% | 44.8% | 47.8% | -0.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 16 | 9-6-1 | 59.4% | 57.5% | 58.8% | +3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 42.5% | -3.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 50.3% | +0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 37.7% | -5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +7.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.1% | +3.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 25.3% | -13.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -3.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -10.9 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.2% | -25.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinister Mindreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |