Water FractalTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
6
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74
34-36-4
overall winrate
48.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.6%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1405
· median 1404
· range 1067–1656
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 26 | 11-14-1 | 44.2% | 45.0% | 38.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 21.0% | -14.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 33.1% | -9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 36.1% | -7.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 32.9% | -11.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
