Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
7
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
83
37-41-5
overall winrate
47.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1351
· range 1119–1389
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 27 | 11-14-2 | 44.4% | 45.2% | 46.5% | -1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 47.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.4% | +7.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +12.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 38.5% | -6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -5.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.8% | +25.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -18.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
