Water GenbuTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
6
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
72
33-35-4
overall winrate
48.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1239
· median 1219
· range 1159–1328
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 24 | 12-10-2 | 54.2% | 53.6% | 62.5% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 43.0% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.4% | -19.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.3% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.5% | -2.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.4% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.1% | +25.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.5% | -26.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.2% | -26.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
