Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
25
(9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
329
147-153-29
overall winrate
49.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1299
· range 1064–1652
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
28% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 124 | 50-63-11 | 44.8% | 44.9% | 44.6% | -1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 31 | 19-12-0 | 61.3% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 14 | 6-5-3 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 53.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 13 | 4-6-3 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 48.5% | -0.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 16 | 4-11-1 | 28.1% | 32.5% | 37.6% | -5.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 41.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 56.3% | +3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 88.4% | +22.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 54.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 36.6% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 44.2% | -2.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.5% | +7.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 15.0% | -18.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 60.4% | +4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 66.9% | +9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 57.0% | +3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 18.1% | -20.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.8% | +13.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.1% | -21.9 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Tariff Ring, Dream Fairy, Innervate Agility. Losers more often ran: Veiling Breeze, Safeguard Amulet, Spirelle, Schwartz Queen.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Stifling Trap
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Veiling Breeze
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Ensnaring Fumes
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Zephyr | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extortion Scheme | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Foreboding | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |