Wind AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Boston
decks
12
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
137
48-75-14
overall winrate
40.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1238
· median 1222
· range 1071–1508
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
42% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 53 | 17-30-6 | 37.7% | 38.6% | 41.3% | -3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 56.8% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.7% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +0.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -4.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 9 | 1-7-1 | 16.7% | 26.9% | 32.1% | -8.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -3.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +15.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +25.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
