Water Astra RangerTier 3
at Ascent Boston
decks
4
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
42
4-35-3
overall winrate
13.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
17.8%
avg ELO -11.3 per match
expected value
26.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
28.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1101
· median 1085
· range 1042–1191
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
971
Q1 1196
Q3 1408
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 12 | 0-12-0 | 0.0% | 12.5% | 16.9% | -14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.5% | -17.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 27.2% | -14.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
