← Ascent Taipei

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Taipei. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Wind Byakko
54.4%
0.2% share · 12 matches
↑ top
1st
Water Umbra Ciel
58.8%
0.2% share · 22 matches
↑ top
3rd
Wind Crux Mage
54.4%
0.2% share · 12 matches
↑ top
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Umbra Ciel 1 0.2% 22 65.9% 72.0% 58.8% 64.0% 1499 ↑ top
2 Wind Byakko 1 0.2% 12 54.2% 37.1% 54.4% 45.4% 1453 ↑ top
3 Wind Crux Mage 1 0.2% 12 54.2% 37.1% 54.4% 45.4% 1453 ↑ top
4 Fire Crux Lorraine 37 6.4% 503 55.0% 53.7% 53.6% 52.7% 1368 ↑ top
5 Fire Crux Mage 41 7.1% 505 54.4% 55.1% 53.1% 54.2% 1310 —
6 Wind Seiryuu 42 7.3% 530 53.4% 55.0% 52.8% 54.4% 1328 —
7 Fire Aggro 19 3.3% 279 52.9% 51.9% 52.4% 51.7% 1338 —
8 Wind Arcane 1 0.2% 14 50.0% 58.0% 52.2% 57.1% 1393 ↑ top
9 Fire Exia 17 2.9% 253 52.4% 52.8% 52.1% 52.6% 1324 —
10 Horse and Taxes 22 3.8% 273 51.8% 54.6% 52.1% 55.2% 1274 —
11 Wind Shadowstrike 57 9.9% 646 51.6% 48.2% 51.8% 49.1% 1296 —
12 Wind Crux Lorraine 15 2.6% 200 53.2% 52.4% 51.7% 51.7% 1315 —
13 Fire Rile 278 48.1% 2436 51.8% 50.6% 51.6% 50.5% 1316 —
14 Fire Astra Cleric 2 0.3% 24 52.1% 54.8% 51.5% 53.3% 1233 ↓ low
15 Fire Oblation 8 1.4% 120 52.1% 48.9% 51.2% 49.3% 1319 —
16 Fire Umbra Ranger 3 0.5% 25 36.0% 27.5% 51.1% 48.2% 1175 ↓ low
17 Wind Wakeup Combo 16 2.8% 245 50.8% 52.1% 50.6% 51.7% 1327 —
18 Fire Luxem Assassin 44 7.6% 561 50.4% 46.6% 49.3% 46.0% 1342 —
19 Water Aetherwing 8 1.4% 97 46.4% 57.5% 48.9% 56.0% 1269 —
20 Water Allies 25 4.3% 341 49.4% 51.3% 48.8% 50.4% 1271 —
21 Water Slimes 1 0.2% 13 46.2% 51.1% 48.6% 51.2% 1356 ↑ top
22 Fire Suzaku 49 8.5% 593 49.6% 50.7% 48.2% 49.3% 1293 —
23 Water Genbu 10 1.7% 123 48.8% 50.1% 48.1% 48.7% 1269 —
24 Wind Allies 22 3.8% 303 47.7% 47.5% 47.9% 48.0% 1301 —
25 Fire Crux Hybrid 4 0.7% 50 48.0% 41.1% 46.9% 42.0% 1304 —
26 Fire Umbra Guardian 11 1.9% 151 46.4% 48.1% 46.7% 48.0% 1316 —
27 Wind Slice & Dice 1 0.2% 17 52.9% 43.9% 46.5% 41.4% 1427 ↑ top
28 Fire Ravishing Mill 3 0.5% 31 40.3% 42.9% 45.9% 47.6% 1248 —
29 Wind Tera Kongming 1 0.2% 8 37.5% 26.8% 44.5% 38.2% 1336 —
30 Water Fractal 19 3.3% 199 42.5% 45.4% 44.4% 46.6% 1226 ↓ low
31 Fire Firebloom Burn 12 2.1% 183 44.8% 53.1% 44.4% 50.4% 1284 —
32 Wind Astra Cleric 7 1.2% 93 44.1% 42.6% 44.1% 43.3% 1381 ↑ top
33 Water Ravishing Mill 3 0.5% 34 44.1% 54.2% 44.0% 49.1% 1252 —
34 Slimes 4 0.7% 46 39.1% 51.0% 44.0% 50.9% 1204 ↓ low
35 Fire Suited 21 3.6% 253 42.3% 46.1% 43.4% 46.1% 1211 ↓ low
36 Water Neos 2 0.3% 33 48.5% 42.8% 42.8% 37.9% 1294 —
37 Fire Aetherwing 1 0.2% 11 22.7% 27.7% 42.8% 42.7% 1237 ↓ low
38 Water Tera Mage 4 0.7% 47 42.6% 41.8% 42.5% 42.6% 1207 ↓ low
39 Wind Umbra Tristan 1 0.2% 11 45.5% 60.9% 41.9% 49.4% 1067 ↓ low
40 Fire Slimes 2 0.3% 27 33.3% 29.1% 40.8% 36.7% 1245 —
41 Water Astra Ranger 13 2.2% 143 36.0% 39.3% 40.5% 42.5% 1235 ↓ low
42 Water Umbra Guardian 2 0.3% 19 26.3% 25.6% 39.1% 37.3% 1179 ↓ low
43 Fire Polkhawk 1 0.2% 10 20.0% 36.6% 37.4% 43.2% 996 ↓ low
44 Wind Tera Silvie 1 0.2% 7 0.0% 24.2% 35.4% 42.1% 1025 ↓ low
45 Wind Razorgale 3 0.5% 32 32.8% 35.0% 35.2% 34.3% 1144 ↓ low
46 Fire Seiryuu 1 0.2% 13 23.1% 18.9% 33.7% 28.1% 1266 —
47 Wind Vanitas 1 0.2% 8 12.5% 44.0% 33.3% 44.8% 988 ↓ low
48 Fire Neos 2 0.3% 23 26.1% 35.5% 33.1% 37.0% 1146 ↓ low
49 Water Beast 1 0.2% 11 18.2% 41.1% 32.2% 40.8% 945 ↓ low
50 Wind Luxem Zander 2 0.3% 20 20.0% 22.9% 31.7% 31.1% 1213 ↓ low