EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Singapore.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 15 | 5.3% | 145 | 59.3% | 54.7% | 58.0% | 54.7% | 1330 | — |
| 2 | Water Slimes | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 64.3% | 63.8% | 56.1% | 56.9% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 7 | 2.5% | 70 | 58.6% | 59.6% | 55.3% | 56.3% | 1288 | — |
| 4 | Water Overlord | 1 | 0.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.9% | 54.6% | 59.9% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 4 | 1.4% | 38 | 52.6% | 60.5% | 53.1% | 57.4% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Lorraine | 1 | 0.4% | 10 | 70.0% | 56.5% | 52.9% | 50.9% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 0.7% | 23 | 54.3% | 42.8% | 52.6% | 43.9% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 26 | 9.3% | 220 | 52.0% | 51.5% | 52.6% | 52.5% | 1360 | — |
| 9 | Wind Beast | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 72.2% | 53.5% | 52.5% | 46.9% | 1300 | — |
| 10 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 35.7% | 41.0% | 52.1% | 52.4% | 1278 | — |
| 11 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 50.0% | 41.3% | 52.0% | 47.8% | 1331 | — |
| 12 | Water Ravishing Mill | 19 | 6.8% | 168 | 53.6% | 50.0% | 51.7% | 49.6% | 1361 | — |
| 13 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 44.4% | 41.9% | 51.5% | 50.5% | 1507 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Slimes | 4 | 1.4% | 36 | 55.6% | 51.9% | 50.8% | 47.8% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Slimes | 81 | 28.8% | 498 | 50.5% | 51.4% | 50.1% | 50.8% | 1307 | — |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 23 | 8.2% | 192 | 50.3% | 48.2% | 50.0% | 48.2% | 1342 | — |
| 17 | Water Lorraine | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 44.4% | 49.9% | 48.8% | 50.5% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 17 | 6.0% | 133 | 48.5% | 41.4% | 48.7% | 43.0% | 1301 | — |
| 19 | Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 50.0% | 44.5% | 47.7% | 46.4% | 1284 | — |
| 20 | Fire Erupting | 7 | 2.5% | 60 | 45.0% | 46.5% | 47.4% | 48.1% | 1293 | — |
| 21 | Fire Aggro | 16 | 5.7% | 122 | 48.8% | 55.6% | 47.1% | 52.3% | 1299 | — |
| 22 | Wind Allies | 23 | 8.2% | 177 | 46.3% | 45.8% | 47.1% | 47.0% | 1326 | — |
| 23 | Fire Crux Merlin | 5 | 1.8% | 46 | 45.7% | 43.2% | 46.9% | 44.7% | 1289 | — |
| 24 | Fire Neos | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 21.4% | 27.5% | 46.7% | 46.5% | 1027 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 28.6% | 41.8% | 45.8% | 49.9% | 1047 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Neos Tonoris | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 45.1% | 44.6% | 1174 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Fire Arcane | 7 | 2.5% | 51 | 43.1% | 48.8% | 44.8% | 47.3% | 1321 | — |
| 28 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 50.0% | 38.2% | 44.7% | 37.4% | 1266 | — |
| 29 | Water Neos Tonoris | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 28.6% | 37.7% | 44.2% | 44.6% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 30 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 44.4% | 43.5% | 43.9% | 40.5% | 1362 | — |
| 31 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 44.4% | 47.0% | 43.1% | 43.8% | 1111 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Water Astra Cleric | 4 | 1.4% | 31 | 37.1% | 49.0% | 42.5% | 48.7% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.2% | 42.0% | 43.2% | 1321 | — |
| 34 | Water Neos | 3 | 1.1% | 25 | 36.0% | 39.2% | 41.6% | 42.0% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 33.3% | 42.4% | 41.2% | 41.7% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 33.3% | 42.5% | 40.8% | 41.4% | 1338 | — |
| 37 | Water Umbra Tristan | 1 | 0.4% | 8 | 31.2% | 20.0% | 40.5% | 30.1% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 24.9% | 38.7% | 37.4% | 1116 | ↓ low |