EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Boston.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 6 | 2.2% | 99 | 86.4% | 88.2% | 72.9% | 75.0% | 1498 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 6 | 2.2% | 92 | 60.3% | 57.9% | 56.8% | 56.1% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 0.4% | 16 | 62.5% | 52.5% | 56.0% | 52.7% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 16 | 5.9% | 221 | 56.6% | 53.4% | 55.3% | 53.2% | 1366 | — |
| 5 | Fire Rile | 141 | 52.4% | 1143 | 53.8% | 52.3% | 54.2% | 52.8% | 1338 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 7 | 2.6% | 99 | 52.5% | 50.0% | 52.7% | 50.5% | 1314 | — |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 16 | 5.9% | 219 | 50.7% | 41.4% | 52.3% | 45.7% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 6 | 2.2% | 72 | 48.6% | 53.7% | 51.3% | 56.0% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 14 | 5.2% | 187 | 51.1% | 52.8% | 50.3% | 52.0% | 1296 | — |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 7 | 2.6% | 91 | 50.5% | 50.4% | 49.9% | 50.5% | 1318 | — |
| 11 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 0.4% | 11 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 49.8% | 50.0% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 19 | 7.1% | 241 | 50.2% | 52.3% | 49.0% | 51.0% | 1333 | — |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 25 | 9.3% | 329 | 49.1% | 49.1% | 48.8% | 49.1% | 1317 | — |
| 14 | Water Umbra Guardian | 2 | 0.7% | 26 | 42.3% | 50.1% | 48.8% | 53.2% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 0.7% | 31 | 51.6% | 44.5% | 48.7% | 45.7% | 1512 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 7 | 2.6% | 83 | 47.6% | 48.3% | 47.8% | 49.1% | 1302 | — |
| 17 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 9 | 3.3% | 104 | 44.7% | 49.0% | 47.7% | 51.4% | 1323 | — |
| 18 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 0.4% | 12 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 47.2% | 45.8% | 1279 | — |
| 19 | Fire Oblation | 14 | 5.2% | 175 | 46.3% | 46.6% | 46.9% | 47.8% | 1282 | — |
| 20 | Water Fractal | 6 | 2.2% | 74 | 48.6% | 36.6% | 46.7% | 40.4% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 0.7% | 29 | 44.8% | 43.5% | 46.7% | 46.1% | 1362 | — |
| 22 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 0.4% | 12 | 45.8% | 53.0% | 45.8% | 48.0% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.4% | 14 | 42.9% | 56.0% | 45.5% | 52.0% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 0.4% | 16 | 43.8% | 58.2% | 44.6% | 52.4% | 1352 | — |
| 25 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 0.4% | 13 | 53.8% | 49.3% | 44.5% | 43.3% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 26 | Fire Suzaku | 31 | 11.5% | 333 | 44.7% | 44.3% | 44.3% | 43.9% | 1288 | — |
| 27 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 5 | 1.9% | 52 | 46.2% | 52.8% | 43.4% | 48.5% | 1284 | — |
| 28 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 1.1% | 39 | 41.0% | 52.1% | 43.4% | 49.9% | 1359 | — |
| 29 | Wind Seiryuu | 10 | 3.7% | 117 | 42.3% | 49.7% | 43.3% | 47.5% | 1252 | — |
| 30 | Wind Allies | 12 | 4.5% | 137 | 40.1% | 44.5% | 43.3% | 45.5% | 1238 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 0.7% | 20 | 35.0% | 48.1% | 42.3% | 46.8% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 6 | 2.2% | 70 | 37.1% | 42.6% | 42.0% | 45.0% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Water Exia Jin | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 22.2% | 29.1% | 41.9% | 43.3% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.4% | 12 | 33.3% | 54.5% | 38.7% | 47.7% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Fire Exia Jin | 1 | 0.4% | 10 | 25.0% | 32.2% | 38.7% | 37.3% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Wind Beast | 1 | 0.4% | 15 | 26.7% | 34.1% | 38.5% | 40.7% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 0.4% | 10 | 30.0% | 42.5% | 36.0% | 36.0% | 1056 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 7.1% | 36.4% | 32.2% | 41.3% | 1067 | ↓ low |
| 39 | Water Astra Ranger | 4 | 1.5% | 42 | 13.1% | 17.8% | 26.7% | 28.8% | 1101 | ↓ low |